The predictive value of animal studies has been questioned yet again by a new, independent study that found only one in ten successful animal trials might lead to an approved drug for humans.
Researchers from the University of Toronto reviewed 76 prestigious animal studies, each originally published in such journals as Science and cited by at least 500 other papers, to see if any had resulted in a human trial of the treatment in question. Despite all the animal studies being positive (that is, the treatment was effective) only 8 of the studies resulted in approved drugs for humans – that’s a mere 11%.
Despite the prestigious journals in which they originally appeared, more than half of the 76 highly-cited animal studies used methods and design that rated poor or low. Quality of the design, however, didn't appear to affect the main outcome: studies with "good" methods were no more likely to be replicated in human studies.
The authors of the new study warned that even the very limited success rate of 11% was likely to be an overestimate because they examined only highly-cited studies featured in very prominent journals. They went on to conclude that,
“...patients and physicians should remain cautious about extrapolating the findings of prominent animal research to the care of human disease”.
The reference for the study is: Hackman, D.G. and Redelmeier, D.A. 2006. Translation of research evidence from animals to humans. Journal of the American Medical Association 296, 1731-2.
From ECEAE newsletter "Testing Times" November issue
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